Titre / Course name   

Enseignant / Teacher

Anne Sophie Robilliard / Amedeo Spadaro

Volume horaire / Load

24h =8 sessions of 2h  

TD / Tutorial

Yes :  8h = 8 sessions of 1h (at the end of each section)

Semestre / Semester

1

Descriptif général / Outlines

The past decade has seen the rapid development of microsimulation models (MsM) and techniques for the evaluation of public policies. MsM are models that start with large-scale representative surveys of households or individuals to which are added several kinds of information: data from other surveys and databases, imputations and statistical matches, program rules, and behavioral assumptions. The purpose of this course is to present microsimulation models and techniques that have been implemented and used both in developed and developing countries.

Programme par séance / Syllabus

Calendar

November 12, 2009, 14h00-17h00

1) Introduction to Microsimulation and the evaluation of public policies. (AS)

•          ex ante vs. ex post techniques.

•          Microsimulation models: construction, components (data, algorithm), validation and calibration, non take up, some example of MsM.

November 26, 2009, 14h00-17h00

2) Microsimulation analysis in an arithmetical framework. (AS)

•          Theoretical background

•          Applications. 

December 3, 2009, 14h00-17h00

3) Microsimulation analysis in a behavioral framework. (AS)

•          Theoretical background

•          Applications. 

Slides lectures 1, 2 ,3

  Slide consumption

December 8, 2009, 14h00-17h00

4) Computable General Equilibrium models (AR)

•          Theoretical background

•          Construction. 

December 10, 2009, 14h00-17h00

5) Integrating CGE and Microsimulation models (AR)

•          bottom up approaches

•          top down approaches

December 14, 2009, 14h00-17h00

6) Dynamic CGE and microsimulation. (AR)

•          Theoretical background

•          Construction.  

December 15, 2009, 14h00-17h00

7) Integrating the Macro aspects in microsimulation: other approaches (AR)

January 7, 2009, 14h00-17h00

8) Experiences of application of ex ante evaluation: policy and research questions (AS)

Méthode pédagogique / Teaching Method

Lectures accompanied by tutorials in which students will learn practically how to build and use simulation models

Contrôle des connaissances / Assessment Method

Final exam

Bibliographie / Bibliography

Manuels / Textbooks

·       Bourguignon F., M. Bussolo and L.A. Pereira da Silva, “The Impact of Macroeconomics Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution. Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools”, Palgrave Macmillan and World Bank, (2008).

·       Bourguignon F., and L.A. Pereira da Silva, “The Impact of Economics Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution. Evaluation Techniques and Tools”, Oxford University Press and World Bank, (2003).

·       Spadaro A., “Microsimulation as a Tool for the Evaluation of Public Policies: Methods and Applications", FBBVA, Madrid, (2007).

Lectures additionnelles / Other recommended readings

·       Spadaro with JM Labeaga and X. Oliver, “Discrete Choice Models of Labour Supply, Behavioural Microsimulation and the Spanish Tax Reforms”,. Journal of Economic Inequality, 6 (3): 247-263. (2008).

·       Spadaro with K.Orsini, “Strategic Weight within Couples: A Microsimulation Approach”, Research on Economic Inequality, vol 15, Pag. 99-132. (2007).

·       Spadaro with F. Bourguignon, “Microsimulation as a Tool for Evaluating Redistribution Policies”, Journal of Economic Inequality, vol.4, nº 1, pag. 77-106 (2006).

·       Spadaro “Micro-simulation and Normative Policy Evaluation: an Application to some EU Tax-Benefits System”, Journal of Public Economic Theory, 7. nº 4, pag. 593-622 (2005).

·       Spadaro “Basic Income or Vital Minimum? A Note on the Distributive Effects of Possible Reforms of the Spanish Income Tax” in " Modeling Our Future: Population Ageing, Social Security and Taxation". Coord. Harding, A and Gupta, A . International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics. Vol 15; North Holland, Amsterdam. 2007

·       Spadaro "Reforming Tax-Transfer Systems in Europe: Applications of a Prototype European Tax-Benefit Model", with F. Bourguignon, C. O’Donoghue, J. Sastre Descals and F. Utili in A.Gupta and V.Kaipur "Contribution to Economic Analysis: Microsimulation in Government Policy and Forecasting", North Holland, Amsterdam, 1999

·       Spadaro A., "Optimal taxation, social contract and the four worlds of welfare capitalism". PSE Working Paper nº  38-2008.

·       Bourguignon F. and A. Spadaro "Tax-Benefits Revealed Social Preferences" PSE Working Paper nº  37-2008.

·       Robilliard A.-S. et Robinson S. (2003) « Reconciling Household Surveys and National Accounts Data Using a Cross Entropy Estimation Method », The Review of Income and Wealth, 49(3), p. 395-406.

·       Cogneau D. et Robilliard A.-S. (2008) « Poverty Alleviation Policies in Madagascar: A Micro-Simulation Model », in F. Bourguignon, M. Bussolo et L. Pereira da Silva, The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution, World Bank et Palgrave Macmillan, New York, p. 213-246.

·       Robilliard A.-S., Bourguignon F. et Robinson S. (2008) « Crisis and Income Distribution: a Micro-Macro Model for Indonesia », in F. Bourguignon, M. Bussolo et L. Pereira da Silva, (eds), The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution, World Bank et Palgrave Macmillan, New York, p. 93-118.

·       Cogneau D. et Robilliard A.-S. (2007), « Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar: Learning from a microsimulation model in a general equilibrium framework », in A. Spadaro (ed), Microsimulation as a tool for the evaluation of public policies: methods and applications, chapter 3, Fundacion BBVA, Bilbao, p. 75-116.

·       Robilliard A.-S. et Robinson S. (2006) « Social Impact of a WTO Agreement in Indonesia », in T. Hertel et L. Winters (eds), Putting Development Back into the Doha Agenda: Poverty Impacts of a WTO Agreement, World Bank et Palgrave Macmillan, New York, p. 319-340.

·       Bourguignon F., Robilliard A.-S. et Robinson S. (2005) « Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality », in T. Kehoe, T.N. Srinivasan, J. Whalley (eds), Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Essays in Honor of Herbert Scarf, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 219-254.

·       Cogneau D., Grimm M. et Robilliard A.-S. (2003) « Evaluating poverty reduction policies: the contribution of micro-simulation techniques », in J.-P. Cling, M. Razafindrakoto, F. Roubaud (eds), The New International Strategies for Poverty Reduction, chap. XIV, Routledge, London/New York, p. 340-370.